adhdeck

Methodology

The whole point of ADHDECK is that you don’t have to take our word for it. Here is exactly how the numbers are made — and what they deliberately exclude.

How a call becomes a number

Entry price

The official closing price on the call’s publish date (entry_date). If that date isn’t a trading day, we use the next trading day’s close.

Marking open positions

Open calls are marked to market at the latest available close (the “as-of” date of the most recent pipeline run). Closed calls are marked at the close on their exit_date.

Short returns

A short’s return is the negative of the price change: if the asset falls 10%, the short call is +10%.

Model portfolio

Equal-notional per call (each call’s weight defaults to 1). Each call contributes one equal-weighted position from its entry date. The equity curve is the combined, daily-rebalanced mark-to-market value of all open positions, rebased to 100 at the first call. Cash drag and financing/borrow costs are ignored in this version.

Benchmark

Each call is compared to its asset-class benchmark: equities, ETFs and ADRs vs the S&P 500 (SPY); crypto vs BTC. The portfolio-level benchmark is the S&P 500, with crypto calls individually benchmarked to BTC.

Unresolved calls

If price data is missing for a call, its status is unresolved: it is excluded from aggregate statistics and surfaced visibly in the table. We never silently drop or interpolate data to flatter the curve.

Data sources

  • Equities / ETFs / ADRs — daily closes from Yahoo Finance.
  • Crypto — daily closes from the CoinGecko API.
  • Calls — hand-authored YAML in /data/calls, committed to git (tamper-evident timestamps).

What we do and don’t count

We count
  • Public, time-stamped calls with a link to where we said it.
  • Both open and closed positions (open marked to the latest close).
  • Longs and shorts, equities and crypto.
We don’t count
  • Private or undated opinions, or anything we can’t link to.
  • Cash drag, leverage, financing, slippage, or fees (yet).
  • Backdated, edited, or deleted calls — history is never rewritten.

The derived data behind every chart and stat is available at /api/portfolio.json.

Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.